Flood fears rise as winter melt sets in

Flood damage at the State Pier in Arnolds Park, summer of 1993 (Photo courtesy of Jim Goyette)

The hardy dose of winter that Mother Nature deposited on the doorstep of Dickinson County is raising flood fears among Lakes area residents.

During a February 23 Board of Supervisors meeting, Mike Ehret, Dickinson County Emergency Management/911 coordinator, met with board members to share some initial findings on the current flood risks in the county.

While he noted the comparison was a "worst case scenario," Ehret made some initial connections between the '09-'10 and '92-'93 precipitation amounts.

Inevitable '93 comparisons

For Ehret, the similarities between '92-93 and the current year began this fall.

"In terms of precipitation, both times, we had wet Octobers," Ehret said. "Whether that means something or is coincidence and just happened to work that way (I don't know)."

One difference Ehret did discover between the two timelines was in the current year's snowfall amounts.

"(The) snowfall in '92-'93 was just ... a couple inches above normal," he said. "We were at 41 and a half and then this year we're just shy of 62 inches."

Ehret notes the spring precipitation totals in '93 played an even bigger role than the winter snowfall amounts.

"In '93 what really hurt us was all this rain in April and May, and then especially in June and July; that's what really just pushed everything up and out."

Ehret hopes to draw on the knowledge of those who sprung into action during the '93 floods.

"Of course, its not nice that '93 happened, but its recent enough that there were people involved that remember that and were involved.. If it happens again, I think we'll be better off than we were then," he said.

No guarantees for a '93 repeat

In his data, Ehret offered precip figures from winters that didn't result in the '93 flooding conditions.

"The record season snowfall was about 83 inches in the winter of '68-'69 ... and the lakes were a little high that summer but there wasn't, I believe, any flooding," Ehret said. "Area rivers definitely flooded, that's the year Estherville had their record crest on the Des Moines River."

Ehret hopes these calculations help dissuade some panic among Lakes area dwellers.

"Just because we've had a lot of snow doesn't necessarily mean we're going to have lake flooding," Ehret said. "It's really going to depend on the rain and if we get any additional snow and then whatever rain we get this spring."

The benefits of frost points

Believe it or not, Ehret's findings reveal the brutal temps that plagued the area for much of the winter may actually reduce the flood risk for the upcoming spring.

"We had upwards of two feet of snow around Christmas and then after that it got very cold; the snow actually kept the ground from experiencing the 20, 30 below temperatures we had," Ehret said. "It acted like a blanket and kept it close to freezing.

With all the snow, it's actually helped insulate the ground."

Impact of spring melt/timing

Ehret knows that, when it comes to assessing this year's flood risk, a watch-and-wait stance is now necessary.

"There's a lot of different things that can happen," Ehret said. "If we get a lot of additional snow or rain, (it also depends on) how quickly the snow we have melts."

Ehret plans to keep an eye on the sky in the coming months.

"The biggest thing will be spring rains," he said. "That's going to be the determining factor."

Preparations in place

As spring settles in at the Lakes, Ehret is doing his best to keep various aspects of the county prepared for whatever may come.

"We've requested some information from the cities on what facilities they have that could be effected if the lakes reach '93 levels; lift stations and different things like that," he said.

Ehret and the emergency management crews also received a shipment of 60,000 sandbags to share with other counties in the area, and he is in discussions with the Red Cross, state emergency management administrator, state hydrologist and the Army Corps of Engineers. Ehret plans to share the results of his discussions with the Army Corps at a noon meeting with the board of supervisors set for today.

When it comes to the preparations of individual residents, Ehret places special emphasis on those homeowners with properties effected by the '93 floods, and notes rising water levels will probably lead to wet basements for residents across the county.

Despite numerous "worst case scenario" predictions, Ehret still remains optimistic, and urges Dickinson County inhabitants to avoid panic.

"Now is really the time for them to be preparing - just in case," he said. "And if nothing happens, great, we can go about our spring and summer and forget this ugly winter."