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Saturday, Feb. 11, 2012

Step One: Nuclear Deterrence

Posted Monday, November 23, 2009, at 8:56 AM

Until nuclear weapons are eliminated from earth, the threat of attack, howevere remote, must be considered. The two possible scenarios are massive attack from a nuclear power or limited attack by a terrorist or rogue government.

Prevention of a massive attack will continue to be based on the policy of mutually assured destruction; its threat is a decreasing possibility. Indeed, since the dawn of the nuclear age in 1945, the Cuban missile crisis in 1962 is the one time we came close to unlimited war. Of course, it only takes one time but for the good of mankind our emphasis must be on elimination of nuclear weapons as opposed to continuing to rely on fear of them as the means to avoid earth's annihilationn. However, until elimination is accomplished, the threat must be accepted.

But let's be real. Given that the U.S. no longer has a superpower adversary, do we really need to spend $40 billion annually on a nuclear force? Do we really need 500 Minuteman missiles, 336 submarine-deployed Trident missiles and a fleet of bombers (already planned to be replaced in 2018 by a new fleet)? Because SALT II failed, some of this weasponry is fitted with mutiple warheards so even after recent cutbacks our total active firepower is still 1,430 megatons. Hiroshima's Little Boy was .013 megaton.

For political and diplomatic as well as financial and humanatarian purposes, an immdiate pledge by the United States to eliminate 50 percent of this arsenal and drop plans for new bombers would not reduce our ability to defend ourselves one bit. It would show the world we are serious about eliminating the possibility of nuclear holocaust and save us billions in the process. And even with half the ballistic missiles, we would have 55,000 times what we used at Hiroshima plus vastly superior systems for delivery.

When the ability to acquire these weapons is gone, and when the materials and information necessary for their production are controlled, the chance that they will be used by terrorists or rogue states will also be virtually gone. Enforcement of the United Nations mandated ban, upgraded intelligence and astute diplomacy would emiminate it completely--Berkley Bedell.


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Mr. Bedell:

Wouldn't your argument have more credibility if you also demanded that Russia and China, at least, also reduce nuclear tonnage by one-half? Our experience is not good in expecting the rest of the world to applaud and emulate our moral acts.

Cordially,

Jim

-- Posted by Jim Farrell on Thu, Nov 26, 2009, at 4:00 AM

While I would like to see a reduction of nuclear power worldwide, I doubt that a unilateral disarmament or arms reduction will "lead the way". I would fully expect that our elected leaders would look upon any monitary savings as a new "cookie jar" to raid and with their level of discipline I doubt they would stop until the jar was empty and we were completly vulnerable.

Nuclear arms reduction can seriously begin only after we have a viable defense other than Mutaually Assured Destruction.

-- Posted by jonpeters on Fri, Dec 4, 2009, at 11:04 AM


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Berkley Bedell--Retirement from the U.S. Congress in 1987, neither dulled my interest in the well-being of the people of the United States nor my worries about our governance. I began work in 2006 on a book outlining the country's problems and offering solutions. Jim Frost--I share Berkley's concerns and in 2007 began the job of researching, editing and assisting with writing his book. By early 2009, after finally weathering George W. Bush and recognizing how much the past eight wasted years have set the world back, our focus changed. We had seen no meaningful progress in the efforts to stem the threat of nuclear weapons, reverse global warming, preserve natural resources, reduce military spending, fight disease and hunger, improve health care, deal with the increasing gulf between rich people and poor people, establish a workable economic system, or clean up the political process. For us, these three things became self-evident: First, the problems are global; the U.S. cannot by itself control or solve them. Second, the perfect storm of worldwide catastrophe is already upon us; what must be said cannot wait. Third, in seeking solutions, the problems must be put before as many people as possible as quickly as possible. This blog is the result. There will be much more. We invite you to participate.
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