Predicting the Oscars 2010: 82nd Annual Academy Awards

Nominations for the 82nd Annual Academy Awards were announced on Tuesday, February 2, 2010, and the ceremony, co-hosted by Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin, will be telecast live on the ABC Television Network, www.abc.com, on Sunday, March 7, at 7:00 p.m. CT, immediately preceded by "Countdown to the Oscars 2010," a red carpet arrivals pre-show.

I've been asked to predict the Oscar winners for 2010. While I'm hesitant to make predictions for fear of appearing uninformed or just plain ignorant, I've decided to rise above my fears and accept the request.

This year there are 58 nominated movies in two dozen (24) categories. I've seen only 35 of them, a pathetic 60% of the total nominees. Keep in mind, however, that relatively few people get to see the nominees in the three short film categories: Documentary Short; Short Film (Animated); Short Film (Live Action).

Unless one lives in a major metropolis, such as Los Angeles or New York, there are very few opportunities for most moviegoers to see these short films until they're released on the Internet, DVD or Blu-ray.

Removing the 15 shorts, five nominees in each of the three short film categories, I've seen 35 of 43 nominated feature-length movies, increasing the nominees I've seen to 81%. It's a more respectable percentage but still nothing to brag about.

Two categories, Documentary Feature and Foreign Language Film, hurt my percentage. While most documentaries and foreign films are released wider than short films, very few of them show in relatively smaller movie markets such as the Iowa Great Lakes and the small towns in northwest Iowa and southwest Minnesota.

While the most memorable aspects of the Academy Awards usually happen during the ceremonies, an interesting change for the 82nd Annual Academy Awards was announced last summer: the expansion of the top category, Best Picture, from five to ten entries. During the early years of the Oscars, the size of the Best Picture field changed several times, but the last time there were ten nominees for the top prize was the 16th Annual Academy Awards in 1943.

As for my predictions, I think the closest races will be between ex-spouses Kathryn Bigelow and James Cameron for Directing and their respective movies, "The Hurt Locker" and "Avatar," for Best Picture. These races are especially interesting for a couple of reason. First, in the 81 years of the Academy Awards, a woman has never won the Oscar for Achievement in Directing. Second, Cameron and Bigelow were married to each other from 1989 to 1991. Thankfully, they seem to be on good terms and supportive of one another.

My predictions for potential winners (and my personal favorites) in ten of the most popular of the 24 Oscar 2010 categories are as follows...

ACADEMY OF MOTION PICTURE ARTS AND SCIENCES
NOMINATIONS BY CATEGORY - 82ND AWARDS

Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role, a.k.a. Leading Actor
Jeff Bridges in "Crazy Heart" (*potential winner)
George Clooney in "Up in the Air"
Colin Firth in "A Single Man" (personal favorite)
Morgan Freeman in "Invictus"
Jeremy Renner in "The Hurt Locker"

Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role, a.k.a. Supporting Actor
Matt Damon in "Invictus"
Woody Harrelson in "The Messenger"
Christopher Plummer in "The Last Station"
Stanley Tucci in "The Lovely Bones"
Christoph Waltz in "Inglourious Basterds" (*potential winner & personal favorite)

Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role, a.k.a. Leading Actress
Sandra Bullock in "The Blind Side" (*potential winner)
Helen Mirren in "The Last Station"
Carey Mulligan in "An Education"
Gabourey Sidibe in "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire"
Meryl Streep in "Julie & Julia" (personal favorite)

Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role, a.k.a. Supporting Actress
Penélope Cruz in "Nine"
Vera Farmiga in "Up in the Air"
Maggie Gyllenhaal in "Crazy Heart"
Anna Kendrick in "Up in the Air"
Mo'Nique in "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire" (*potential winner & personal favorite)

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year
"Coraline," Henry Selick (personal favorite)
"Fantastic Mr. Fox," Wes Anderson
"The Princess and the Frog," John Musker and Ron Clements
"The Secret of Kells," Tomm Moore
"Up," Pete Docter (*potential winner)

Achievement in Directing
"Avatar," James Cameron
"The Hurt Locker," Kathryn Bigelow (*potential winner)
"Inglourious Basterds," Quentin Tarantino
"Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire," Lee Daniels (personal favorite)
"Up in the Air," Jason Reitman

Best Foreign Language Film of the Year
"Ajami," Israel
"El Secreto de Sus Ojos," Argentina
"The Milk of Sorrow," Peru
"Un Prophète," France
"The White Ribbon," Germany (*potential winner)

Best Motion Picture of the Year, a.k.a. Best Picture
"Avatar," James Cameron and Jon Landau, Producers (*potential winner & personal favorite)
"The Blind Side," Nominees to be determined
"District 9," Peter Jackson and Carolynne Cunningham, Producers
"An Education," Finola Dwyer and Amanda Posey, Producers
"The Hurt Locker," Nominees to be determined
"Inglourious Basterds," Lawrence Bender, Producer
"Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire," Lee Daniels, Sarah Siegel-Magness and Gary Magness, Producers
"A Serious Man," Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, Producers
"Up," Jonas Rivera, Producer
"Up in the Air," Daniel Dubiecki, Ivan Reitman and Jason Reitman, Producers

Adapted Screenplay
"District 9," Written by Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell (personal favorite)
"An Education," Screenplay by Nick Hornby
"In the Loop," Screenplay by Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Tony Roche
"Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire," Screenplay by Geoffrey Fletcher
"Up in the Air," Screenplay by Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner (*potential winner)

Original Screenplay
"The Hurt Locker," Written by Mark Boal (*potential winner)
"Inglourious Basterds," Written by Quentin Tarantino
"The Messenger," Written by Alessandro Camon & Oren Moverman
"A Serious Man," Written by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
"Up," Screenplay by Bob Peterson, Pete Docter, Story by Pete Docter, Bob Peterson, Tom McCarthy (personal favorite)

If my predictions are mostly accurate, then remember that you read them here first. If they're way off, then try to forget that you ever read this. Thank you for your time! I hope to see you at the movies!